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Venezuela, Maduro, Bitcoin, & Polymarket
Will crypto play a role in Venezuela's new era?
Wealthcamp
January 05, 2026
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The sudden removal of Nicolás Maduro didn’t just redraw Venezuela’s political future—it instantly rewired the outcome of one of the world’s most closely watched prediction markets.
In a matter of hours, Polymarket traders who had wagered on an outcome most dismissed as improbable watched penny-priced contracts snap to full value. The episode highlights how decentralized betting markets can price in seismic geopolitical shifts long before headlines catch up. But it also raises uncomfortable questions about information asymmetry, insider advantage, and where speculation ends and foreknowledge begins. As prediction markets mature, Maduro’s fall may be remembered less for the trade itself—and more for what it revealed about how power, intelligence, and markets now collide.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s political relevance has begun to reassert itself front and center in Venezuela’s post-Maduro transition. Nobel Prize–winning opposition leader María Corina Machado, a vocal Bitcoin advocate, is emerging as a serious contender to lead a new Venezuela built on free-market reforms and crypto adoption. As traders confront volatility and nations debate Bitcoin’s role in monetary survival, the asset’s future may be shaped as much by geopolitics as by price charts.
Let’s dive in!
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